mlb projections

resolve mlb

Per-game box-score projections for every batter and probable pitcher, refreshed daily. Plus the first in-house Resolvemetric, CPC v0 — Catcher × Pitch-Type Cooperation.

the ways in

how the model has held up, across the site

85%of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus

RPS 0.171World Cup ranked-probability scoretighter than the bookmaker-calibrated international band (0.20–0.22)

54%hit rate on 165 NBA playoff callsbeat the closing market

These are the model's results wherever it has been scored so far. Per sport numbers replace them as each sport builds up a record.

what has changed

release notes

2026-06-27

release notes

v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.

2026-06-27

methodology writeups

MLB projections fit four separate models — full-season batter performance, strikeout/walk/homer components, per-plate-appearance matchups, and team run totals — all anchored on roughly 10 million Statcast pitches. The matchup model gives pitcher and batter equal weight because a tough starter swings the line as much as a hot hitter.

soon

model retrospectives

what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.