mlb projections
resolve mlb
We rank every team, project every hitter and pitcher, and call games before the first pitch. Then we publish how those calls turned out.
the ways in
how the calls have held up
what has changed
release notes
2026-06-27
release notes
v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.
2026-06-27
methodology writeups
MLB projections fit four separate models — full-season batter performance, strikeout/walk/homer components, per-plate-appearance matchups, and team run totals — all anchored on roughly 10 million Statcast pitches. The matchup model gives pitcher and batter equal weight because a tough starter swings the outcome as much as a hot hitter.
soon
model retrospectives
what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.