mlb projections

resolve mlb

Per-game box-score projections for every batter and probable pitcher, refreshed daily. Plus the first in-house Resolvemetric, CPC v0 — Catcher × Pitch-Type Cooperation.

sections

players teams catcher framing advanced resolve metrics live

release notes

2026-06-27

release notes

v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.

2026-06-27

methodology writeups

MLB projections fit four separate models — full-season batter performance, strikeout/walk/homer components, per-plate-appearance matchups, and team run totals — all anchored on roughly 10 million Statcast pitches. The matchup model gives pitcher and batter equal weight because a tough starter swings the line as much as a hot hitter.

soon

model retrospectives

what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.

how the projections have held up

85%

of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly

29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus

RPS 0.171

World Cup ranked-probability score

tighter than the bookmaker-calibrated international band (0.20–0.22)

54%

hit rate on 165 NBA playoff calls

beat the closing market