Stealing strikes
When a batter lets a pitch go, the umpire decides. Some catchers receive the ball in a way that turns a ball into a called strike — and it is a real skill, not luck: the same catchers do it year after year.
What makes it worth a page of its own is that the skill is pitch-specific. A catcher can be the best in baseball at receiving a sinker and thoroughly ordinary at a curveball, so one number per catcher hides most of what is going on. Everything below is measured pitch by pitch. Across the league, … of the pitches a batter takes are called strikes; that is the mark every catcher here is being held against.
Who steals the most strikes
click any name to see that catcher pitch by pitchStrike rate is the share of taken pitches the umpire called a strike, adjusted so a catcher who happens to receive more of the easy pitches gets no credit for it. Best-to-worst gap is the distance between that catcher's strongest and weakest pitch — a wide gap means their skill is very pitch-specific, and Austin Barnes has the widest in baseball.
Pitch by pitch
select a catcherOne bar per pitch this catcher sees enough of. The bar is their own strike rate; the gray tick is what the league manages on that same pitch, so the distance between the two is what they add on that pitch.
Which pitches are easiest to steal
league baselinesWhat the league as a whole gets called on each pitch. A sinker, which tails late but stays near the zone, is the easiest to have called a strike; a changeup, thrown to tempt a batter out of the zone, is the hardest. These are the marks the bars above are measured against.
Methodology
cpc v0 · 2022-2024 · taken pitchesWhy this is measured pitch by pitch: most public framing models score a catcher with a single number. That single number leaves the strongest signal on the floor — the variance of the (catcher × pitch-type) interaction is 4.47× larger than the catcher main effect alone. The same catcher can be the league's best framer on a sinker and middle-of-the-pack on a slider, and one number cannot say so.
How firm the finding is: transfer r=+0.843 across non-overlapping windows (2022-23 → 2024) means the skill is real and persistent, not a luck artifact. Pitcher-control survival is 3.40× — the signal strengthens after removing the pitcher main effect rather than weakening, so it belongs to the catcher and not to whoever they happen to be catching.
Substrate:
- Pitch-level: 1.13M taken pitches 2022-2024 (TAKEN-only removes the batter-swing strategic confound)
- Within-cell residualization: for each (catcher × pitch_type) cell, we subtract the catcher main effect AND the pitch-type main effect — what remains is the interaction
- 117 qualified catchers (≥ 1500 taken pitches across the window)
- 541 quality cells (≥ 200 taken pitches per cell to qualify)
- 7 pitch-type bins: FF (fastball), SI (sinker), SL (slider), CU (curveball), CH (changeup), FC (cutter), OTHER
Headline finding: σ²(catcher × pitch_type) / σ²(catcher_main) = 4.47. The interaction variance is four-and-a-half times larger than the variance of catcher main effects. Translation: when you're shopping for a framer, you should be asking "framer for what pitch shape?" — not just "good framer?".
Robustness checks:
- Cross-window transferability: r=+0.843 (n=389 cells, 2022-23 vs 2024). Highest transfer in the post-compact Resolvemetrics arc — catcher framing is the most persistent signal we've measured.
- Pitcher-control survival: σ²(C×PT) / σ²(pitcher_main) = 3.40×. Removing pitcher main effect STRENGTHENS the catcher×pitch-type signal — it's intrinsic to the catcher, not an artifact of which pitchers they happen to catch.
- Face validity: Patrick Bailey #1 (consensus #1 in public framing models), Alejandro Kirk, Yadier Molina, Austin Hedges all in top 15. Bottom: Jason Castro, Tyler Soderstrom, Luis Torrens, Korey Lee.
What this is NOT: not a complete catcher value metric. CPC measures framing on taken pitches; complementary skills (batted-ball receiving, pitch-calling, blocking, throwing) are separate axes — xCRA measures batted-ball receiving and gives a different leaderboard (no overlap with CPC top-15 — they're orthogonal catcher skill axes). Report jointly, not averaged.